Initial jobless claims for the week ended June 25 came in at 428,000, 1000 less than the prior week. While any drop is good news for the economy, the data was worse than expected as economists had forecast claims would fall by 8,000. In addition, the four-week moving average of new claims, considered a more reliable indicator because it smooths out volatile weekly data, rose by 500 to 426,750.
It marked the 12th straight week initial claims have stayed above the all important 400,000 mark. This is the level used by economists to gauge whether the economy is adding or shedding jobs. Claims above the 400,000 mark, like we have had for about the last three months, show that the economy is losing jobs.
We track these numbers closely because unemployment rates are closely correlated with credit card charge off rates.
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